In 2012 China very low probability of a hard landing of the economy, on the other hand is the concept of a hard landing for long-term economic is very high. It seems now the first half of next year of the decline of the real estate market pressure; The second is the private economy in the next few months the challenges facing continue to be very big; The third is from the European debt crisis to the challenge of China's economy will also be relatively large. The three main risk factors, next year could force the state council and the central bank in macroeconomic regulation and control policy especially monetary policy aspects have to relax. Structural problems cause for long-term economic of a hard landing of the probability is very high. Long may refer to the next three to five years of concept. Many structural problems, I want to say two things: the first is the tax situation out of control to see any possibility of short-term too much for changes.polarized sunglasses No matter the National People's Congress or other financial committee professional committee of the National People's Congress or the standing committee as long as they wrong, the ministry of finance, and so on the administrative department of taxation impulse, especially the local government taxes do some restrictions impulse words, now tax equivalent of GDP growth in the three times in the short term are hard to change. The second aspect is important, although already after 30 years of reform and opening-up, the country as the owner of the assets of the proportion is still heavy, about two thirds of; The government has the proportion of China's social wealth is 2/3. Based on the two reasons, this has caused too much of China's economic growth depends on investment, can't depend more on private consumption growth. More and more national income into the government, more and more property, assets appreciation is to remain in government, and not to stay in the folk people hand. The structural problems if you don't change it, long-term prospects of a hard landing of the economy of China hard to avoid. Many domestic media including experts to be a concern for the U.S. economy, and I think the U.S. economy in the short term is also the future may not be the two or three years, rapid growth, but relative to the European Union for, the American economy than the prospect of domestic think a lot better. The eu's economic problems mainly because the eu taxation is easy, through the European governments spend more easily. The United States is government spending is relatively easy, but the U.S. government taxation is very difficult. According to recent data, Europe now national debt balance is high, but the average tax burden is 41%, the United States now of the national debt is also very high, but the United States this year the federal government and the local government tax is 24% proportion. If the financial crisis is really go to no choice of words, the United States is not there is no solution, as long as the United States people and politicians willing to a tax increase, the problem can be solved. In the past 40 years, the United States all the corporate taxes account for American corporate profits percentage for about 40%, the year before the United States to the corporate taxes down to only 20% of the profits, and China's situation is exactly the opposite. According to preliminary estimates of I, remove the factors of inflation, from 1995 to 2010, the Chinese government's budget in tax revenue accumulated over the 10 times. Many people think the debt crisis, the financial crisis is severe, but the following data offers another possibility. The tax year only 24% of GDP, but the proportion of China about 35%, if the United States levy level and China quite, also to 35%, so the United States this year deficit basic is zero. We need to remember that the important thing, the United States levy difficult, and the present China's tax revenue growth in a complete state of out of control.baseball hats U.S. government debt problems in fact is not serious, as long as a tax increase, America's financial crisis is unlikely to occur. In China's economic environment often appear "too sure the phenomenon of", the National People's Congress and the local government of the people's congress will lead to not as a case vastly. The United States congress often is some filed no settlement can be reached, a lot of Chinese people will feel that the United States government the house and the senate's incompetent. But in a perspective, a right of limited social rights institutions are supposed to be like this. It should not enjoy the rights of tax at will. Because the government hand if too positive and touches of too much, too frequent, will cause too much on policy options to the case vastly. Even in 2008 is very serious financial crisis in 2009, the United States government every time than we expected to the case of light. Now the media was very advanced, experts, the people channel express their views, the government of any a policy will spread in the first time. But it also caused a problem, a lot of policy in issued after, experts, people don't have the patience to wait for the process of policy function. A lot of people seem to think how no immediate, policy is faulty? In fact like our body, eat the medicine also need some time to adjust. Such a big economies yesterday just make policy choices, how May 24 hours of the whole economy immediately a lot of adjustments happen? Especially in China right unregulated big background, experts don't give the government more potent medicine suggested impulse. Every man to his remind, might want to give the market's invisible hand enough time and opportunity. 
see more:The world economy HuangPiShu : the financial crisis may last for 10 years
The common currency of France the fate of the major influence