Written in two weeks ago, hair at the latest looked out on the east "in September 2011 xx day abstract: although macroeconomic indicators suggest that, China's economy are likely to" soft landing "prices rising momentum has been end, is expected to inflation from highs; While economic growth remains strong,NFL hats not appeared in 2008 when the regulation of economic growth fell sharply in 2011-but the phenomenon of four quarter to the future for quite some time, the global economy was again the possibility of a recession is greatly increase or decrease. The memo on global economic secondary agent of China can take policy in response to put forward some preliminary idea. Growth: the big economic stimulus policy issued to maintain growth practice should try to avoid. In the global economy of the second agent, China's economic growth slows brewing. Annual growth rate in China's economic status, cannot reflect: 1. Growth quality; 2. To the disadvantaged groups protection; 3. The adjustment of economic structure; 4. Job growth speed; 5. The sustainability of growth. Therefore, if issued deal with policies, shall be based on the above 5 points for pointer, rather than to simply growth rate. Monetary policy: greatly eased practice should avoid, monetary policy should give priority to fine tune. China in 2008-2010 the credit expansion happens there are still a lot of legacy problems, another big easy money will have the remedy is worse than the danger, the consequences may include: government and enterprise debt a substantial growth bank asset quality to drop, sharply reduced the rate of return on investment and assets and goods prices. Monetary policy, therefore, only in the position of the auxiliary. Monetary policy stance, the current moderately tight to moderate loose. In the international financial turmoil case, if the business normal institutions and enterprises capital chain rupture appears, the people's bank should timely provide the market with liquidity. With China's interest rates are still low, the practice of rate cuts should not be encouraged. Adjust the monetary policy stance, more should through the deposit reserve rate and open market operation of the power to achieve. Exchange rate policy:?? The reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism should continue to steadily, and must not because the international economic secondary agent base and pause again. The stability of the international major currencies, in global economic agents under the condition of the bottom again, will become even more unpredictable. From the dollar in the anchor exchange rate policy, will increasingly against China's economy-in short, the dollar to RMB trend trend, the dollar interest rates contain RMB rate, make China lost money and exchange rate policy autonomy; In the long term, the dollar's long-term trend will probably and China structure transformation need exchange rate movements in opposite directions, block China's economic transformation. Therefore, even in the global crisis was again, under the situation of the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism also should not stop. Fiscal policy: targeted and transparent fiscal stimulus is coping with the global economy will be the second agent the main policy tool. China's financial situation, especially to the central finance, still have plenty of space, can allow strong fiscal stimulus. But to ensure that financial resources are effective use, help the transformation of China's economic structure, and protect vulnerable groups and avoid recessive government debt accumulate, be sure to try to do fiscal stimulus: 1. No fiscal stimulus all the way through the government budget occur, avoid non-budgetary expenditures, such as local financing platform, the state-owned enterprise, become subject in spending, debt accumulation; 2. Fiscal stimulus to protect the livelihood of the people as the main direction, including to low-income groups and unemployed personnel to provide protection, avoid rush mount government investment projects; 3. In the education, health care, vocational training, environmental protection, and other direction, can increase the investment. Such already can cope with the crisis, but also to the future high quality,NBA hats sustainable growth to lay the foundation; 4. When necessary, should first residents to tax cuts, including income tax, five risks a gold. For large enterprises, especially with the scholars from renmin monopoly, should avoid to use any financial resources. Structural policies: China and many have not yet completed great structural reform, the reform in the short term is not necessarily beneficial to deal with the crisis, but in the long term to achieve stability, high quality and with inclusiveness and fair growth has a very important meaning is. These include key resources and realize the marketization of energy prices, and through the corresponding to reflect the tax environment cost; To achieve financial deepening and increase enterprise, especially small and medium-sized enterprise's financing channel, increase the investment way residents, and realize the interest rate and exchange rate of the market decide; Let go of market access, including industry access and region access, and eliminate the local protection and enterprise monopoly; Reduce the flow of residents barriers, realize the urban and rural residents consistent "national change"; There is clear of the duty of the government in the economy and role, increase the transparency of government behavior. Conclusion: the United States before the White House chief of staff, said: we don't want to waste a severe crisis (take this to promote the reform of the necessary). As for China, is even more so. If the global economy out again at the end of the day, this will be the other people's crisis, and just push the reform is our opportunity.

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